This article explains the difference between equity and expected value (EV) in poker.
What equity means
Equity is your share of the pot if both players suddenly decided to check it down to the river and see who has the best hand. If a hand or range has 60% equity, it means that it is expected to win 60% of the pot on average if repeated an infinite number of times.
Equity can be measured for a hand against another hand, a hand against a range, or a range against another range. Equity is usually expressed as a percentage of the pot.
What expected value means
Your expected value (EV) is the portion of the pot that you are expected to win, considering the fact that you are allowed to bet.
It is often useful to compare the EV of different actions to see which one is expected to be the most profitable. EV is usually expressed in chips or big blinds.
Why equity and EV are different
Equity and EV are related, but they are not the same thing.
- Equity tells you how much of the pot you would win if betting was not allowed and the hand was played to showdown.
- EV tells you how much of the pot you are actually expected to win considering you are allowed to bet.
It is possible to have an EV larger than the pot (for example if we have the nuts and are likely to get called), but equity is limited to 100% of the pot. The whole point of betting is to be able to increase our EV above what our equity would otherwise suggest.
Fold equity and implied odds
If we have a flush draw on the turn, we have 9 outs to make our flush assuming our opponent has no flush cards. If our flush is guaranteed to win if we hit, our equity is ~19.6% on the turn. However, if we bet on the turn and our opponent folds, they are folding hands that had some equity against our hand. The equity that our opponent gives up by folding is called fold equity and supports the equity of our hand. The more fold equity we have, the less equity our hand needs to have to make a profitable bet.
As a bonus, if our opponent calls and our draw hits on the river, it is likely the opponent has a strong enough hand to pay us off since they called our bet on the turn. These are called implied odds – the fact that we can win large pots if we hit our draw.
Key takeaways
Equity is your showdown share of the pot, while EV is the amount you are expected to win. We bet to maximize our EV at the expense of our opponents.